What is in this article?:
- When will the food bubble burst?
- How much time before food bubble bursts?
- Lester Brown, EPI president, likens the current food bubble economy to the recent U.S. housing bubble that sent shockwaves through the world economy when it burst. He warns a food bubble could have farther reaching impacts because of its geopolitical implications.
The Earth Policy Institute (EPI) held a teleconference to discuss the emerging global crisis of a “food bubble,” the environmental forces and factors that created it and how to prevent it from bursting. Lester Brown, EPI president and author of the new book, World on the Edge: How to Prevent Environmental and Economic Collapse, likened the current food bubble economy to the recent U.S. housing bubble that sent shockwaves through the world economy when it burst. He warns a food bubble could have farther reaching impacts because of its geopolitical implications.
“Over the last few decades we have created a global bubble economy—one based on environmental trends that cannot be sustained, including overpumping aquifers, overplowing land, and overloading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide,” notes Brown, If we cannot reverse these trends, economic decline is inevitable. No civilization has survived the ongoing destruction of its natural support systems. Nor will ours.”
Brown writes in his book that “The archeological records of earlier civilizations indicate that more often than not it was food shortages that led to their downfall. Although I had long rejected the idea that food could be the weak link for our global civilization as well, I now think that it is. And unlike the recent U.S. housing bubble, the food bubble is global.”
“The question is not whether the food bubble will burst but when,” says Brown. While the U.S. housing bubble was created by the overextension of credit, the food bubble is based on the overuse of land and water resources and it is further threatened by the climate stresses deriving from the excessive burning of fossil fuels. When the U.S. housing bubble burst, it sent shockwaves through the world economy, culminating in the worst recession since the Great Depression. When the food bubble bursts, food prices will soar worldwide, threatening both economic and political stability everywhere. For many of those living on the lower rungs of the global economic ladder, survival itself could be at stake.
The danger signs are everywhere. In the summer of 2010, record high temperatures scorched Moscow from late June through mid-August. Western Russia was so hot and dry in early August that 300 to 400 new fires were starting every day.
“The average temperature in Moscow for July was a scarcely believable 14 degrees Fahrenheit above the norm. Watching the heat wave play out over the seven-week period on the TV evening news, with the thousands of fires and smoke everywhere, was like watching a horror film. Russia’s 140 million people were in shock, traumatized by what was happening to them and their country,” says Brown in World on the Edge. The record heat also shrank Russia’s grain harvest from roughly 100 million tons to 60 million tons. This 40-percent drop and the associated grain export ban helped drive world wheat prices up 60 percent in two months, raising bread prices worldwide.
Crop ecologists estimate that for each 1 degree Celsius rise in temperature above the norm during the growing season, grain yields decline by roughly 10 percent. In parts of Western Russia, the spring wheat crop was totally destroyed by the crop-withering heat and drought. As the earth’s temperature rises, the likelihood of more numerous, more intense heat waves increases.