Big U.S. yields are translating into big crops for corn. However, U.S. ending stocks are expected to remain tight on strong demand, according to USDA’s Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
For example, the 120-million bushel increase in U.S. corn production would be more than offset by a 30-million bushel increase in domestic corn use and a 100-million bushel increase in exports
The U.S. rice crop is projected at a record 245.9 million hundredweight, down 4.1 million from last month’s projection, but up 26 million from 2009-10. Average yield is forecast at 7,039 pounds per acre, down 118 pounds per acre from last month and a decrease of 46 pounds per acre from last year.
Long-grain production is forecast at a record 187.2 million hundredweight, but down 2.8 million from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 58.6 million, down 1.4 million from a month ago.
Rice export projections were raised 1 million hundredweight from last month to 114 million hundredweight, based mostly on large food aid announcements for shipment early in the marketing year. Combined milled- and brown-rice exports were projected 5 million hundredweight higher, and rough rice export projections were lowered 4 million hundredweight.
U.S. rice ending stocks for 2010-11 are estimated at 56.8 million hundredweight, down 10.6 million from last month, but up 22.9 million from the previous year, and the highest stocks since 1985-86.
Global rice production for 2010-11 is projected at a record 459.2 million tons, nearly the same as a month ago. Global consumption was raised from a month ago largely due to an increase for India. World ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 97.5 million tons, up 900,000 tons from last month, largely the result of upward revisions for Bangladesh, Burma, India and Turkey.
U.S. cotton exports were raised 700,000 bales to 15 million bales based on larger supplies and higher foreign import demand.
Projected world cotton consumption was raised to nearly 121 million bales, 2.7 percent above last season. China imports were raised 850,000 bales, accounting for about three-fourths of the 1.2 million-bale increase in world imports. Exports are higher mainly in India and the United States. World ending stocks are now projected at 45.6 million bales. If realized, the stocks-to-use ratio of 38 percent would be the smallest since 1994-95.