No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2009-10 rice supply and use balance, says the U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report.
On the use side, domestic and residual use is unchanged from a month ago; however, all rice exports for 2009-10 decreased 1 million cwt to 100 million. Rough exports increased 2 million cwt, while combined milled and brown exports (on a rough-equivalent basis) decreased 3 million. Long-grain exports decreased 1 million cwt to 69 million, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged at 31 million. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.8 million cwt, 1 million above last month, and up 10.4 million from 2008-09.
The 2009-10 long-grain season-average price is projected at $12.70 to $13.20 per cwt, 20 cents on each end of the range less than last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.45 to $17.95 per cwt, down five cents on each end of the range. The all rice season-average price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.40 per cwt, down 15 cents on both ends of the range. The price projections are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through mid-February and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year. Global prices have weakened over the last month due in part to a softening in import demand and an increase in available supplies of the major exporters.
Global 2009-10 rice production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks increased from last month. The 4-million-ton increase in world production to 440.3 million is due mostly to increases for India and Bangladesh, up 2.5 million and 1.6 million, respectively. The production changes for both India and Bangladesh are based on information received in March from the agricultural counselor's office in New Delhi and official in-country statistics. Small production increases are made in the European Union, Cuba, and Malaysia. Production decreased slightly in Venezuela, Chile and the Philippines.
World consumption is projected at a record 440.6 million tons, up 3.4 million from last month, and up 1 percent from 2008-09. The increase in consumption is due mostly to increases for India, Bangladesh, and China. Vietnam's 2009-10 exports increased to 5.75 million tons, while China's exports decreased to 0.85 million. Imports increased for the Philippines, Malaysia, Nigeria, and South Africa, but decreased for Saudi Arabia and India. Global ending stocks decreased 1.6 million tons to 90.9 million due mostly to a reduction in China's stocks.
China's 2009-10 ending stocks are estimated at 40.8 million tons, down 4.4 million from a month ago, and down about 0.5 percent from 2008-09. The changes in China's supply and use balance for 2008-09 and 2009-10 are based mostly on a report from the agricultural counselor's office in Beijing. The report increased domestic consumption in 2008-09 and 2009-10 by 4 million tons and 1 million, respectively. Partially offsetting the decline in China's stocks are increases for India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and the Philippines.