In its September report, USDA lowered its 2012-13 U.S. export projection by 300,000 bales from the August report to 11.80 million bales due to lower U.S. production and lower world imports. USDA sees 2012-13 US mill use unchanged from the August report at 3.40 million bales. This generates a total 2012-13 offtake of 15.20 million bales. Ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected at 5.30 million bales for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 34.9 percent.
For the 2011-12 crop year, US cotton production is set at 15.57 million bales. Estimated mill use and exports were unchanged from the August report at 3.30 million bales and 11.71 million bales, respectively. Total offtake for the 2011-12 crop year is estimated at 15.01 million bales. Ending stocks were raised 50,000 bales to 3.35 million bales. The estimated stocks-to-use ratio for the 2011-12 marketing year is 22.3 percent.
USDA’s September report projects 2012-13 world production to be 114.03 million bales, down 80,000 bales from last month. Mill use is projected at 107.55 million bales, down 610,000 bales from last month. With beginning stocks at 69.88 million bales, this would result in world ending stocks of 76.52 million bales on July 31, 2013, and a stocks-to-use ratio of 71.1 percent.
World production for the 2011-12 marketing year was estimated to be 124.16 million bales, up 1.49 million bales from last month. World mill use was lowered 1.10 million bales to 104.28 million bales. Consequently, world ending stocks are estimated to be 69.88 million bales with a stocks-to-use ratio of 67.0 percent.