Private surveys indicate that U.S. winter wheat 2013 planted acres may be higher than for the 2012 crop.

Increased planted acres are expected to have little impact on wheat prices until January or February. And if the drought is not broken, increased planted acres may have little, if any, price impact.

Hard red winter (HRW) wheat planted acres are expected to be about the same as the 2012 HRW wheat crop. Soft red winter (SRW) and hard spring (HS) wheat planted acres are expected to increase. Higher SRW wheat acres will have minimal impact on HRW wheat prices and the price impact of increased hard spring wheat acres would not occur until July or August 2013.

The factors that may have the largest price impact are Russian, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan wheat exports, Australian wheat production, and U.S. winter wheat planting conditions. Many analysts predict that Russia and Ukraine will have sold their supply of exportable wheat by late October.

Australia’s wheat production is highly variable. The five-year (2006-2011) average wheat production, using USDA estimates, is 839 million bushels. ABARES’ (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) five-year average wheat production estimate is 836 million bushels. The USDA has Australia’s wheat production at 499 million bushels in 2006; 787 million bushels in 2007; 802 million bushels in 2008; 1025 million bushels in 2010; and 1083 million bushels in 2011.