What is in this article?:
- Tale of the tape for US agriculture in 2012
- Demand versus production
- This year should be another good one for U.S. agricultural exports with the lower value of the dollar more than compensating for the expectations of slower world growth.
- USDA’s chief economist projects the highest corn plantings since 1944, a decline in cotton plantings due to lower prices and a small increase in rice acreage for 2012.
USDA’s chief economist projects the highest corn plantings since 1944, a decline in cotton plantings due to lower prices and a small increase in rice acreage for 2012. Speaking at the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum 2012 in Arlington, Va., Joseph Glauber also projected higher wheat acres this year. Here’s more:
Corn plantings, estimated at 94 million acres, would be the largest plantings since 1944. Soybeans are projected at 75 million acres, unchanged from 2011, but down 1.6 million from last year’s intentions which were not achieved partly due to excessive moisture during planting, especially in the upper Midwest.
Lower prices will likely result in a decline in upland cotton area to 13 million acres. Rice plantings will likely increase 2.3 percent to 2.8 million acres. Most of the increase is expected to occur in long grain rice in the Delta where farmers were prevented from planting substantial intended acreage by early season flooding in 2011.
Wheat acreage is expected to increase 3.6 million acres to 58 million. Winter wheat area, at 41.9 million acres, is up 1.3 million from last year. Spring wheat plantings should rebound from last year’s levels when excessive spring and early summer wetness limited seedings.
This year should be another good one for U.S. agricultural exports with the lower value of the dollar more than compensating for the expectations of slower world growth, according to Glauber.
He pegged U.S. agricultural exports at $131 billion in fiscal year 2012, down $1 billion from the last estimate, but still forecast to be the second highest on record. The decline from record exports in fiscal year 2011 reflects record global crop production which has weakened prices and export volumes.
Imports are projected at $106.5 billion, up $12 billion from 2011. The net trade balance for is forecast at $24.5 billion, compared to $43 billion in 2011.
China was the largest destination for U.S. agricultural exports in 2011, importing just shy of $20 billion. “Just five years ago they were our 5th largest destination after Canada, Mexico, Japan and the European Union,” Glauber said. Exports to China are expected to fall by 15 percent this year.
China import demand is expected to remain strong in 2012, accounting for over 60 percent of total world soybean imports and over 50 percent of world cotton imports.
Glauber noted that record prices in late 2010 and the first half of 2011, “resulted in increased plantings and record production for grains and cotton. Soybean production, while off last year’s record, was still the third highest on record.”