Both the 154 bushels per acre average yield and the estimated 2012/13 marketing year use are conservative. The 2012/13 corn marketing year ending year stocks could easily be 1.3 billion bushels. This possibility may be the major reason for the projected lower corn prices.

U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 wheat marketing are expected to increase from 850 million bushels to above 900 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks are projected to exhibit a small increase from the current 7.7 billion bushels.

The average June through August 2011 wheat price for Oklahoma was about $7.65, and the average price for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region was about $7.50.  The 2012 June through August prices are expected to average in the $6 to $6.50 range.

Higher 2012/13 marketing year corn stocks are expected to complete the divorce of wheat and corn prices.

Expected higher 2012/13 marketing year wheat stocks should have a negative impact on wheat prices. The result is that 2012/13 marketing year wheat prices will probably average $6.25 compared to $7.20 during the 2011/12 wheat marketing year. Corn prices should be significantly lower than wheat.