Cotton prices are projected to fall in the initial years of the projection period and rise only moderately in subsequent years, reducing producer returns. Upland cotton plantings are projected to decline over the next decade.

U.S. mill use is projected to remain stable over the next decade, which will support demand for U.S. textile product exports, mainly to other countries in the Western Hemisphere.

U.S. upland cotton exports are projected to rebound over the next several years from the low levels of 2011-12 and then grow moderately in the remainder of the projection period in response to strong global demand. While the U.S. share of global cotton trade initially rises, this share declines later in the projection period. Nonetheless, with a global trade share projected at 34 percent in 2021-22, the United States remains the world’s largest exporter of cotton.