What is in this article?:
- Agriculture commodities shift from squeeze to surplus
- Agri Commodity Sector Forecasts
- A supply squeeze will drive agriculture commodity prices higher in the first half of 2013, followed by price weakening as production rebounds.
Agri Commodity Sector Forecasts
Rabobank makes the following predictions for 2013:
Cocoa - Cocoa prices are expected to move sideways to slightly higher in 2013 amid tightening fundamentals.
Coffee - Coffee prices are expected to increase in 2013, finding support from increasing global demand and tightening stock levels.
Corn - We expect CBOT corn prices to fall 24% from Q1 2013 to average USD 6/bushel in Q4 2013 during the U.S. 2013/14 harvest. Despite the bearish outlook, the beginning of 2013 is expected to see prices rise from current levels to encourage further demand rationing in the U.S..
Cotton - Global cotton prices are forecast to plateau in 1H 2013, as the market faces its largest ever period of oversupply, before the curve lifts modestly by year end.
Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are forecast to rise in Q1 2013 as stocks are drawn down from record high levels, before falling later in the year as palm oil and soybean output rebound.
Soybeans - Soybean prices are expected to remain supported in Q1 2013 on tight export supplies before declining as production rebounds later in the year, with prices for the year averaging below 2012 levels.
Soymeal - CBOT soymeal prices are likely to drop by nearly USD 75/ton from current levels by the end of 2013 as demand slows.
Soy Oil - Soy oil prices are forecast to remain rangebound at the beginning of 2013 on high U.S. supplies, before increasing in mid-2013 as supplies are drawn down.
Sugar - Sugar prices (ICE #11 contract) are forecast to ease 5% over the next 12 months as world sugar supply reaches a net surplus of 5.9 million tonnes.
Wheat - CBOT wheat prices are forecast to rise to USD 9.10/bushel in Q1 2013 and then fall 23% to USD 7.00/bushel by Q4 2013.