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Selling forecasts from bad numbers

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  • When false statements are sold as truth is the logical conclusion to believe none of it?
     

 

The Business Journal picked up information from the report that suggests California’s drought impact will be minor.

The LA Times had a completely different take on the report, suggesting that job growth in California could be hindered for years due to the drought. That’s certainly closer to what we’ve read in recent weeks regarding the drought’s impact to agriculture and the possibility of a 10-15 percent hike in grocery prices by this summer.

According to the UCLA Anderson press release while California’s drought “may affect certain agricultural sectors, the state overall will not be greatly affected by the unseasonably dry weather conditions.”

The Chico Enterprise Record gets it. In a city that worships everything green, this defense of ample, blue water for agriculture is as refreshing as Big Chico Creek on a hot, summer day.

I know this may come as a shock to the unemployed farmworkers, and the tractor supply dealers and companies not able to sell products and services to growers this year because growers have had to fallow their farmland, but the forecast gets even more comical.

UCLA Anderson says the U.S. can expect 3 percent GDP growth this year. How can the nation’s GDP grow like that with nearly one million acres of farmland out of production in California and the real unemployment still north of 15 percent across this nation? Don’t tell me that national unemployment is below 7 percent when millions of jobs have been permanently eliminated since 2009 and countless numbers of Americans are under-employed or worse.

While 3 percent GDP growth is relatively positive given our recent plunge into economic recession and malaise, it’s hard to believe the assumptions of reports like this when blatant falsehoods are used to derive other assumptions and forecasts.

 

Follow me on Twitter @ToddFitchette or e-mail me at tfitchette@farmpress.com

 

Discuss this Blog Entry 1

on Apr 15, 2014

Well Todd, did you contact them to point out the errors or get an explanation?

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