Table of Contents:
- Investor an agriculture prophet or alarmist?
- Tilt warnings and risk
- Cassandras and Pollyannas abound when making predictions about agriculture. The trick is deciding who is right. Risk. Risk. Risk.
If agriculture commodity stocks continue to grow, will a price decline be significant? Grantham sounds a commodity warning: “They came down for a hundred years by an average of 70 percent, and then starting around 2002, they shot up and basically everything tripled — and I mean, everything … They've given back a hundred years of price decline and they gave it back between '02 and '08, in six years. The game has changed. I suspect the game changed because of the ridiculous growth rates in China — such a large country, with 1.3 billion people using 45 percent of the coal used in the world, 50 percent of all the cement and 40 percent of all the copper. I mean these are numbers that you can't keep on rolling along without expecting something to go tilt.”
One thing is certain: Cassandras and Pollyannas abound when making predictions about agriculture. The trick is deciding who is right.
Risk. Risk. Risk.
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